I am indebted to Professor Theodore W. Frick, Indiana University, Bloomington, and the work that he has done in helping to obtain the first validation of ATIS and its value for predicting system behaviors of Intentional Systems. His recognition as cited below is greatly appreciated. -- Ken Thompson, Head Researcher/Owner System-Predictive Technologies (Raven58 Technologies) -- Theodore W. Frick, Professor, Indiana University |
| Predicting the Behavior of Intentional Systems: Axiomatic Theory of Intentional Systems, ATIS , predicts outcomes of goal-directed, intentional systems; that is, systems that are designed with an intention to achieve specific, well-defined objectives. Examples of intentional systems Education Systems, Corporations, Terrorist Networks, and Military Organizations are intentional systems. Each of these systems has a planned outcome or intention. The designers of each system strive to obtain an organization that will optimize effectiveness in obtaining the goals of the system. This is an important feature as it provides the basis for being able to predict system outcomes. The Predictability of Intentional Systems In fact, on a daily basis we act as if system outcomes are predictable. We look at the structure of a school system and recommend that certain changes be made because we believe, or have studies to show, that a new organization will improve outcomes. That is the basis for recommendations such as “Outcome Based Education” (OBE), P-16 Initiatives that are promoted to answer the challenge of No Child Left Behind legislation, and Education Standards and Assessment Programs. We make changes based on the assumption that we know that they will improve outcomes. In the same spirit, we initiate changes in Homeland Security. We improve airport organization screening, obtain new technologies, and restructure the government in the belief that these new structures will improve the desired outcomes. Corporations are run in a well-structured manner, believing that such structure will improve desired outcomes. The CEO makes decisions based on the belief that such decisions will improve the bottom line; that is, the CEO predicts that certain system structure will improve output and profits. How System Structures Can Be Used To Predict Outcomes We intuitively recognize system structure as determining system outcomes. System-Predictive Technologies proposes to make this intuitive perspective precise. An analysis of the system structure predicts its performance and its outcomes. For Corporate Organizations, this means that we will be able to analyze and determine the effective increase in productivity resulting from organization change from the introduction of new corporate structure or new personnel or new technologies prior to their implementation. Such a capability will save 10's of thousands or millions of dollars in reorganization costs. For Terrorist Network Systems, this means that by knowing the structure of the network, we will be able to know what the outcomes of the system will be. This is counter to the existing use of data mining technologies whereby we require repeated observations to recognize the structure and the intent of the terrorists. ATIS rapidly uses new system input to predict structural change before the structure fully develops. ATIS differs from other approaches in that analyzing new input, in the context of the existing system structure, immediately provides the new system structure and thereby predicts the new system intent. That new structure determines the capability and direction of the system, and, therefore, the new “intended” outcome. We do not have to wait, as with other technologies, for a pattern to develop because the new structure predicts the new pattern. This new ATIS technology can be used as an adjunct to existing data mining technologies. It does not replace the existing technology. It facilitates implementation. ATIS provides the analytic tools to evaluate the results of data mining technologies, and then responds to new discrete information to predict immediate outcomes of the new structure. What Funding This Research Will Accomplish System-Predictive Technologies is seeking funding to further the development of ATIS. Funding is sought for this research so that the theory can be fully developed, applications can be further verified, and software developed. Such accomplishments can then be utilized by various businesses to predict outcomes of organizations and programs that will result in improved productivity or predictability. |
| What is ATIS ATIS is an Options Set of Properties and Axioms that are used to develop a formal axiomatic theory. The purpose of this theory is to provide a basis for predicting certain types of behaviors. In particular, the behaviors with which the theory is concerned are those that result from intentional decisions. Such behaviors are the result of individuals and their associated components being organized so as to achieve specific goals; and the resulting organization will be called an Intentional System. Proprietary reports have been prepared that define the process by which a theory is developed from the Options Set. ATIS is Applicable to Analyzing the Following System Types: |
| SimEd ATIS development is being pursued in conjunction with Professor Theodore W. Frick, Indiana University, Bloomington, in order to provide a theoretical basis for his SimEd software. SimEd is the educational equivalent of SimCity. However, unlike SimCity that relies on a scenario-based logic, SimEd will have a strong scientific empirical axiomatic theory-based logic, which will make it of value to educational administrators and educators in their planning for school systems as well as class and individual instructional programs. |
| Background of ATIS (A-GSBT) ATIS (A-GSBT) is an extension of the SIGGS Theory Model initially developed by Steiner and Maccia in the 1960's. SIGGS was then extended by Theodore W. Frick, Professor, Indiana University in the 1990's. ATIS was developed after it was recognized that the Structural Properties defined by Professor Frick represented the topology of the system and that such topology, along with the logical development of the theory that implements the Sentential, Predicate, Class and Relational Calculi would result in a predictive behavioral theory. That theory has now been developed as a mathematical theory. |
Two Articles Printed in Scientific Inquiry Journal It is certainly a privilege and an honor to have two of my articles printed in the Scientific Inquiry Journal. These articles can be viewed at: "General System" Defined for Predictive Technologies of A-GSBT, and A-GSBT: Methodology of Theory Construction. "Follow-up papers will make you a famous scholar in the years to come and your work a long standing one." -- Yi Lin, President, IIGSS Professor Yi Lin is a mathematician and the President of the International Institute for General Systems Studies and information concerning IIGSS and the Scientific Inquiry Journal can be found on that site. -- Kenneth R. Thompson |
We specialize in developing Axiomatic Theories of Intentional Systems (ATIS). Special emphasis is currently being devoted to the development of SimEd with Professor Theodore W. Frick at Indiana University. However, ATIS is also applicable to any large system including hiring programs, business organizations, terrorist predictive activities, and other such systems. |
| Business Organizations |
| Educational Systems |
| Military Systems |
| Data-Mining Technologies |
| Terrorist Network Systems |
| SimEd |
| "I have found Kenneth Thompson's development of ATIS to be extremely valuable for understanding educational systems. ATIS is a surprisingly robust and carefully constructed theory. This theory provides logically clear definitions of over 70 system properties such as efficiency, toput, compatibility, filtration, complexity growth and interdependence. A recent review of research in education indicates good empirical support for theorems initially derived from ATIS . For example, theorem 55 predicts that "system strongness increases only if hierarchical-order decreases." "Why is this important? ATIS predicts what will happen in an educational system if such a change occurs. Such predictability allows us to plan educational reform intelligently. Furthermore, ATIS gives me confidence for building SimEd, which will be a software program to simulate educational systems behavior. What the popular simulation, SimCity, does for designing cities, SimEd will do for education. SimEd will allow K-12 teachers, administrators, parents, students and school board members to design educational systems, not cities. Without A-GSBT, SimEd would lack predictive validity. "The main goal of educational reform is to improve student academic achievement, and if successful, this would be expected to subsequently improve economic conditions and the quality of life. Kurt Lewin often said, "There is nothing so practical as good theory." If we are going to systemically change education, we need to know what we are doing. ATIS and SimEd, when fully developed, will help us predict what changes will be successful." |
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Blog Access Is Now Public
Click on the above link and then enter the
following user name and P/W, if required:
User Name: Ken_Thompson
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Blog Updates:
January 17, 2008, Using ATIS to Analyze Systems
January 7, 2008, Feel-Good Proposals, Theories and
Theory-Models
December 20, 2007, Logico-Mathematical Development of ATIS
Graph Theory
December 19, 2007, ATIS & Analyzing Systems--Deriving
Property Measures
March 15, 2007, The Fallacy of Hypothesis-Driven
Research--Hypotheses Cannot be Used to Derive Theory
May 12, 2007, On the Nature of Axioms
May 14, 207, Situated Systems Theory and Axiomatic Theory
Construction
July 12, 2006, General Systems Theory (GST): Little
Development in the Social Sciences; the Options Set as an
Alternative Type
ATIS REPORTS
The following reports have
been prepared to assist in
explaining and presenting the
foundations of ATIS.
Introduction to ATIS
Axiomatic Logics for ATIS
ATIS Axioms from SIGGS
Structural Axioms
Structural Theorems
ATIS Property Classifications
ATIS Graph Theory
Glossary
The Glossary now presents
each term individually.
The Glossary continues to be
developed and there may be
modifications from
time-to-time.
| Ken and Kim Chi after lunch with Liz and George in Florida, March 9, 2007 |
| Ken and Liz in Florida, March 9, 2007 |
| Ken with George & Liz in Florida, March 9, 2007 |
| Research Recognition Just returned from having a wonderful visit with Liz Steiner and George Maccia! They both look great, as you can see from the photos! And they are enjoying that great Florida weather! Liz signed a copy of her Methodology of Theory Building which she gave to me, and they both signed my copy of their seminal work on SIGGS, published in 1966, research on which I provided mathematical expertise. The SIGGS Research is the work that has lead to ATIS. I am greatly endebted to both Liz and George who inspired me in my work. Thanks to both of you! |
| Transition from A-GSBT (Axiomatic-General Systems Behavioral Theory) to ATIS (Axiomatic Theories of Intentional Systems) Initially I had used A-GSBT to identify the theory that is being developed. Such identification was desired to emphasize its close association with General Systems Theory. However, the use of the term behavioral was not desirable, but did indicate my intent. However, it is believed that a more accurate representation of the theory is entailed by "Axiomatic Theories of Intentional Systems." This eliminates the undesirable reference to "behavioral" and focuses more on the actual nature of the types of systems of concern; that is, those that are "intentional." In view of this, future references will be with respect to ATIS. -- Ken Thompson, Head Researcher/ Owner Raven58 Technologies |
| The Sad State of Education Research Today A recent review of a research proposal concerning ATIS and SimEd has prompted my critique concerning the deplorable state of affairs in education research and education theory. My critique is presented below. Once again, it points out the great need for the development of ATIS and educating educologists concerning what a theory is and how one goes about conducting education research. An even greater concern are the reviewers who are selected to "approve" or "disapprove" proposals for a major grant-giving institution. The reviewers of the submitted proposal have absolutely no idea what they are reading, let alone being able to render judgment on its value! See the critique below. |
| The next 5 pages of my critique are presented below. (Click each page to enlarge it.) |
